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COST 920 Working Group 3: Quantitative risk assessment

Draft plan of work

Objectives

The stated objectives of the working group are:

1. To review currently available foodchain risk assessments carried out in Europe and elsewhere;
2. To identify priority areas for formal quantitative risk assessments;
3. To facilitate discussion on risk assessments carried out in Europe;
4. To inform other WGs on the outcomes of these risk assessments so as to inform future surveillance and research priorities

In the Management Committee meeting of July 26-27, 2001 in Brussels, Belgium it was agreed that these objectives would be met by organising two kinds of meetings.

1. Meetings of risk assessment specialists, who present and discuss ongoing work on QMRA in Europe. These meetings will require detailed insight in modelling and statistics and aim at exchange of knowledge at a specialised level.
2. Meetings between risk assessment specialists and scientists who perform observational and experimental studies that provide data used in QMRA.

This memo further develops the plan of work by proposing specific subject areas for each workshop, and details on items for discussion.

Membership

The COST 920 action is open to all countries that have signed the agreement. However, it must be realised that risk assessment is a highly specialised field of work. For the interaction between participants to be productive, a high level of specialisation is therefore required. As the pace of implementation of microbiological risk assessment projects varies between COST countries, it is not expected that all countries will currently be able to delegate specialists to the meeting. One possible solution for this problem is to have a partly floating membership. Each country would delegate one permanent member to the WG. This would be a scientist who is currently engaged in risk assessment activities, or who is planning to start such activities within the timeframe of the action. In the latter case, the WG would also serve as a tool for technology transfer. A second representative from any COST country would not be a risk assessment specialist per se but would have a background that is relevant to the particular topic of the workshop. For example, in workshop 1 (see below), input from predictive microbiology, consumer sciences, food intake surveys etc. would be relevant. Permanent representatives to the WG would be confirmed by the MC and would assist MC members and WG3 chairs in finding appropriate candidates for specific discussions.

Format and output of meetings

Each meeting will be divided in half-day sessions. In each session, two speakers will introduce a particular topic. Subsequently, discussions in plenary or in breakout groups will be organised to further explore items under consideration, and to make recommendations. Well-respected experts from COST member states but also from other countries will hold introductory presentations on the specific themes. Extended abstracts (4-8 pages) will be made available by each speaker. Conclusions from group discussions will be summarised by rapporteurs and all information will be made available in booklets and on the COST 920 website.

Specialised workshops, tentative subjects of discussion

Year 1: Exposure modelling

Modelling primary production

Standardising the toolkit for a modular approach

From laboratory data to model parameters

Variability in predictive microbiological models

Modelling consumer behaviour

Food consumption data

Year 3: Dose-response modelling

The single-hit hypothesis and cell-to-cell signalling (quorum sensing)

Modelling dose-response relations for toxins, parasites and prions

Modelling the effects of acquired immunity

Dynamic models of the pathogen/host/matrix interaction

Animal and in vitro models as additional sources of information

The perspectives for volunteer studies and intensified outbreak investigations

Year 5: Risk characterisation

Accounting for uncertainty and variability when integrating exposure and dose-response models

Effects on mixed populations

Modelling secondary transmission

Units of risk (infections, cases of illness, fatalities, DALYs etc.)

General workshops; tentative subjects of discussion

Year 2: The interface between data and models

Performance characteristics of detection and counting methods

Distribution of pathogens on/in raw materials and food

Accounting for growth and death of pathogens

Accounting for phenotypic and genotypic variation of micro-organisms

Accounting for variability (e.g. seasonality) and uncertainty

Using expert opinion

Year 4: Interaction between risk assessment and risk management

Quality assurance of risk assessment modelling

Validity and credibility of risk assessment studies

Presenting risk assessment results

Risk based decision-making