COST ACTION 920

Inventory of QMRA Studies in Europe

Pathogen

 Multiresistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (MRDT104)

Country or region

 Denmark

Transmission route

 From

Abattoir

To

 Consumer

Specific product(s)

pork

End-point(s)

Number of MRDT104-infected humans through consumption of Danish pork

Bibliographic reference

Sommer, H.M., Aabo, S., Christensen, B.B., Saadbye, P., Nielsen N.L., Nørrung, B., Lo Fo Wong, D.M.A., 2003. Risk assessment of the impact on human health related to multiresistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT 104 from slaughter pigs - With an assessment of the impact of possible risk management changes. Institute of Food Safety and Nutrition, April 2003. pp 104.

Abstract

To evaluate the risk for Danish consumers of different control strategies, we conducted a Danish risk assessment of pentaresistant (R-type ACSSuT) Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (MRDT104) in slaughter pigs. To the extent possible, the framework of the internationally accepted risk assessment concept was applied, including a dialogue with stakeholders (industry, consumers, etc.). The risk assessment contained elements of hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. 

A risk model by Hald et al. (2004) made it possible to use the prevalence of MRDT104 pig carcasses as input for a prevalence based risk modelling of MRDT104. Control and surveillance data provided the basis for prevalence estimates. Thus, we have been able to provide quantitative estimates on human disease (risk characterisation) without estimation of the number of Salmonella bacteria per ingested meal and subsequent dose-response modelling. 

The exposure model provided estimates of the total number and the prevalence of MRDT104 positive carcasses originating from detected and undetected Danish MRDT104 infected slaughter pig herds. 

The slaughterhouse output was estimated for the present strategy (“restricted trade”) and for the proposed strategy with lifted trade sanctions (“continued trade”), each for two scenarios. The effect of sending pigs from all MRDT104 suspected herds “trace back herds” to sanitary slaughtering with showering of all carcasses with 80°C hot water for 15 seconds, was included in the model. 

The exposure assessment showed that the number of MRDT104 positive carcasses increased 2 to 3 times if  “continued trade” trade is implemented. The human risk model estimated the consumer risk to increase correspondingly by 2 and 3 times. Numbers of human cases were lower than expected from direct proportionality of infected carcasses. This was, in particular, ascribed the protective effect of hot water treatment of all carcasses from detected MRDT104 herds.

Status

 Completed and submitted for publication (Risk Analysis)

Availability

Institute

 Institute of Food Safety and Nutrition  

Contact person

Helle Sommer (hms@dfvf.dk)

Partners

Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research