Changes in a food chain will influence food safety. Quantitative insight is required to evaluate the effect of these changes. Process Risk Modelling (PRM) is a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QRMA) method, which helps with this. PRM estimates the risk to the consumer as a function of process parameters in the food chain.

The current QRMA-studies have a number of flaws:

- The studies do not separate variability and uncertainty of the process parameters.

- Criteria for model selection are lacking.

- The studies evaluate risk management options for specific pathogen/product-combinations without considering the effects on other organisms and on the sensorial quality.

- The majority of the studies adopt a farm-to-fork approach, but often the primary production phase is not considered due to a lack of data.

Aim: Development of a general method for modelling the hazards in a food chain, which includes variability as well as uncertainty, and validation of this methodology with a reference chain.

Method:

1) Analysis of existing studies; 2) Collection of missing data;

RIVM (Maarten Nauta)