International Journal of Food Microbiology, Vol. 78 (1-2) (2002) pp. 155-170

 This paper discusses some of the developments and problems in the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment, especially exposure assessment and probabilistic risk assessment models. To illustrate some of the topics, an initial risk assessment was presented, in which predictive microbiology and survey data were combined with probabilistic modelling to simulate the level of Staphylococcus aureus in unripened cheese made from raw milk at the time of consumption. Due to limited data and absence of dose-response models, a complete risk assessment was not possible. Instead, the final level of bacteria was used as a proxy for the potential enterotoxin level, and thus the potential for causing illness. The assessment endpoint selected for evaluation was the probability that a cheese contained at least 6 log cfu S. aureus g^-1 at the time of consumption; the probability of an unsatisfactory cheese, P_uc. The initial level of S. aureus, followed by storage temperature had the largest influence on P_uc at the two pH-values investigated. P_uc decreased with decreasing pH and was up to a factor of 30 lower in low pH cheeses due to a slower growth rate. Of the model assumptions examined, i.e. the proportion of enterotoxigenic strains, the level of S. aureus in non-detect cheeses, the temperature limit for toxin production, and the magnitude and variability of the threshold for an unsatisfactory cheese, it was the latter that had the greatest impact on P_uc. The uncertainty introduced by this assumption was in most cases less than a factor of 36, the same order of magnitude as the maximum variability due to pH. Several data gaps were identified and suggestions were made to improve the initial risk assessment, which is valid only to the extent that the limited data reflected the true conditions and that the assumptions made were valid. Despite the limitations, a quantitative approach was useful to gain insights and to evaluate several factors that influence the potential risk and to make some inferences with relevance to risk management. For instance, the possible effect of using starter cultures in the cheese making process to improve the safety of these products

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